I'm going to interrupt my long in gestation top ten list to post my predictions and a few comments on tomorow nights 79th Annual Academy Awards. Please bear with me. I just have to throw in my two cents.


Best Motion Picture of the Year

Who Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine
Who Should Win: The Departed
Missing: Children of Men

In all fairness, it could go to either The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, or Babel. It's too close to call with certainty, but in the spirit of such silly predictions I will make a choice.


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Who Will Win: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Who Should Win: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Missing: Ivana Baquero, Pan's Labyrinth

Really this is Mirren's category, and one of the few awards that the Academy will get right. Her performance was astounding. Sometimes I wonder why the Academy still gives out awards based on gender. I guess it's so you can give out more awards. Silly, naive me.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Who Will Win: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Who Should Win: Leonardo Dicaprio, Blood Diamond
Missing: Sascha Baron Cohen, Borat: Cultural Learning's of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

From what I hear Whitaker is great, but it's hardly a "Leading Role." Leo was nominated for the wrong film, though he was great in both. And Sascha Baron Cohen gave one of the greatest comedic peformances of all time. Peter Sellers would be proud.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Who Will Win: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Who Should Win: Djimon Honsou, Blood Diamond
Missing: Jack Nicholson, The Departed

Regardless of no Best Pic nod, Dreamgirls will rake in the awards and Murphy will get this one (Norbit aside, the Academy loves sentimental favourites). Djimon Honsou was great, though his was arguably a co-lead with Leo in the film. And as good as Wahlberg was, Jack was the real firecracker in The Departed.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Who Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Who Should Win: Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Missing: Maribel Verdu, Pan's Labyrinth

See the Dreamgirls comment above. Kikuchi was by far the best part of a film that I really don't feel worked at all, so that's saying something.

Best Achievement in Direction

Who Will Win: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Missing: Darren Aronofsky, The Fountain

This is Marty's year. Finally. Though if he doesn't win he is in good company (Kubrick, Hitchcock, Welles).

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Who Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Who Should Win: The Queen
Missing: The Fountain

As good as Pan's Labyrinth is, The Queen is a remarkable work of speculative fiction (which is good to keep in mind when we criticise United 93 for being speculative).

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Published or Produced

Who Will Win: The Departed
Who Should Win: Children of Men
Missing: Casino Royale

The Departed is great, don't get me wrong, but Children of Men is a fantastic revisioning of P. D. James' novel. And Casino Royale sucessfully adapts Fleming's novel for the 21st century, while staying true to the source material.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Who Will Win: Children of Men
Who Should Win: Children of Men
Missing: The Fountain

Best Achievement in Editing

Who Will Win: The Departed
Who Should Win: The Departed
Missing: The Prestige

Best Achievement in Art Direction

Who Will Win: Dreamgirls
Who Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Missing: A Scanner Darkly

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Who Will Win: Dreamgirls
Who Should Win: Curse of the Golden Flower
Missing: The Prestige

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Who Will Win: Babel
Who Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Missing: The Fountain

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Who Will Win: something from Dreamgirls
Who Should Win: "Our Town," Cars
Missing: "You Know My Name," Casino Royale

Best Achievement in Makeup

Who Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Who Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Missing: The Queen

Best Achievement in Sound

Who Will Win: Dreamgirls
Who Should Win: Flags of Our Fathers
Missing: Children of Men

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Who Will Win: Letters from Iwo Jima
Who Should Win: Letters from Iwo Jima
Missing: Children of Men

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Who Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Who Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Missing: Children of Men

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Who Will Win: Happy Feet
Who Should Win: Cars
Missing: A Scanner Darkly

Best Foreing Language Film of the Year

Who Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Who Should Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Missing: Letters From Iwo Jima (ineligible though)

Best Documentary, Features

Who Will Win: An Inconvenient Truth

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Who Will Win: Recycled Life

Best Short Film, Animated

Who Will Win: The Danish Poet

Best Short Film, Live Action

Who Will Win: Eramos pocos